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Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk; Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis

C. Emre Alper (), Lorenzo Forni and Marc Gerard

No 12/24, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.

Keywords: Credit risk; Cross country analysis; Developed countries; Financial crisis; Sovereign debt; Risk premium; Monetary policy; Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009; Fiscal policy; bond, arbitrage, bonds, stock prices, Advanced Economies, Sovereign Spreads, Fiscal Risks, (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-01-01
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