A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone

Salvador Barros, Marius Brülhart, Robert J R Elliott () and Marianne Sensier ()

Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) from Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP

Abstract: We examine the patterns and determinants of business-cycle correlations among eleven UK regions and six euro-zone countries over the 1966-1997 period, using GMM to allow for sampling error in comparing estimated correlations. The British business cycle is found to be persistently out of phase with that of the main euro-zone economies, and the trend is towards lower correlations. We detect only minor cyclical heterogeneity among UK regions. Differences in sectoral specialisation drive some of the asymmetry in GDP fluctuations, but they do not appear significant in explaining the observed reduction in UK-EU business-cycle correlations over time.

Keywords: business cycles; co-fluctuations; UK regions; European monetary union; optimum currency areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F4 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-ets and nep-ifn
Date: Written
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Published in The Manchester School, vol. 71 (3), Sept. 2002, pp. 265-292

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Related works:
Working Paper: A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone (2002)
Working Paper: A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone (2001)
Journal Article: A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone (2003)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lau:crdeep:01.10

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