Indicators of Electoral Victory

Pablo Amoros () and M. Socorro Puy ()

No 2008-8, Working Papers from Universidad de Málaga, Department of Economic Theory, Málaga Economic Theory Research Center

Abstract: We study a two-party contest where candidates strategically allocate their campaign resources between two salient issues. We analyze to what extent the following indicators of a party's success predict the electoral victory: (1) the pre-campaign advantage, (2) the advantage on every salient issue, and (3) the advantage on campaign resources. We show that the electoral victory is guaranteed only when a party has a "sufficiently large" advantage on every salient issue. Otherwise no combination of these indicators ensures the electoral victory.

Keywords: Election campaign; salient issues; majority voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 C70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
Date: Written
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