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Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points

Giancarlo Bruno () and Claudio Lupi ()

Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers from University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI

Abstract: In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.

Keywords: Forecasting; VAR Models; Industrial production; Cyclical indicators. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-04-14
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Published in Empirical Economics, vol. 29, no. 3. pp. 647-671.

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http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP03004.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points (2004) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning POints (2001) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2001) Downloads
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