Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points
Giancarlo Bruno () and
Claudio Lupi ()
Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers from University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI
In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.
Keywords: Forecasting; VAR Models; Industrial production; Cyclical indicators. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published in Empirical Economics, vol. 29, no. 3. pp. 647-671.
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Journal Article: Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points (2004)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning POints (2001)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2001)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03004
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