Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models

Rob J Hyndman (), A.B. Koehler, J.K. Ord and Ralph David Snyder ()

No 11/2001, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to provide analytical expression for forecast variances that can be used in prediction intervals for the exponential smoothing methods. These expressions are based on state space models with a single source of error that underlie the exponential smoothing methods. In cases where an ARIMA model also underlies an exponential smoothing method, there is an equivalent state space model with the same variance expression. We also discuss relationships between these new ideas and previous suggestions for finding forecast variances and prediction intervals for the exponential smoothing methods.

Keywords: Forecast distribution; Holt-Winters method; Structural models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
Date: 2001-12
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2001/wp11-01.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:msh:ebswps:2001-11

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.buseco.mo ... ts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
Address: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Simone Grose ().