Macroemesures in Computable General Equilibrium Models: a Probabilistic Treatment with an Application to Morocco

A. Touhami and A. Martens

Cahiers de recherche from Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques

Abstract: With the help of an illustrative general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Moroccan Economy, we test for the significance of simulation results in the case where the exact macromesure is not known with certainty. This is done by computing lower and upper bounds for the simulation resukts, given a priori probabilities attached to three possible closures (Classical, Johansen, Keynesian). Our Conclusion is that, when there is uncertainty on closures several endogenous changes lack significance, which, in turn, limit the use of the model for policy prescriptions.

JEL-codes: D50 D57 D58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: Written 1996

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mtl:montde:9621

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