Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?

Michael David Bordo ()

No 12393, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The current pattern of sudden stops and financial crises in emerging markets has great resonance to events in the first era of globalization, from 1870-1913. In this paper I present descriptive statistics on capital flows, current account reversals and financial crises during the period 1870-1913 and compare them with the recent experience. I analyze the incidence of crises and measure their effects on real output losses. Furthermore, I consider the influence of openness to trade, original sin and currency mismatches on the pattern of sudden stops and financial crises. I find strikingly similar patterns across both eras of globalization. The pre-1914 sudden stops were associated with significant output losses comparable with the recent events, and their effects differed considerably depending on a country%u2019s economic circumstances, just as they do today.

JEL-codes: E44 F32 N1 N20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-fdg, nep-fmk, nep-his and nep-mac
Date: 2006-07
Note: DAE IFM ME
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12393.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12393

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12393
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Address: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by ().