Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective

Sebastian Edwards ()

No 13019, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and modest growth."

JEL-codes: F30 F32 N26 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-his, nep-lam and nep-sea
Date: 2007-04
Note: IFM
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Working Paper: Crises and growth: a Latin American perspective (2007)
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