The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence

Timothy Besley () and Torsten Persson ()

No 14585, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel emprical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.

JEL-codes: D74 F52 O11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his
Date: 2008-12
Note: IFM POL
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence (2008)
Working Paper: The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence (2009)
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