The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe
David Canning (),
Günther Fink and
Jocelyn Finlay ()
No 14820, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
We analyze the effect of fertility on income per capita with a particular focus on the experience of Europe. For European countries with below-replacement fertility, the cost of continued low fertility will only be observed in the long run. We show that in the short run, a fall in the fertility rate will lower the youth dependency ratio and increase the working-age share, thus raising income per capita. In the long run, however, the burden of old-age dependency dominates the youth dependency decline, and continued low fertility will lead to small working-age shares in the absence of large migration inflows. We show that the currently very high working-age shares generated by the recent declines in fertility and migration inflows are not sustainable, and that significant drops in the relative size of the working-age population should be expected. Without substantial adjustments in labor force participation or migration policies, the potential negative repercussions on the European economy are large.
JEL-codes: J13 J21 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-eec
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (9) Track citations by RSS feed
Published as European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie May 2010, Volume 26, Issue 2, pp 141-158 The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn E. Finlay
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14820
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Address: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by ().