Protectionism Isn’t Counter‐Cyclic (anymore)

Andrew Kenan Rose ()

No 18062, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Conventional wisdom holds that protectionism is counter-cyclic; tariffs, quotas and the like grow during recessions. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the Second World War, it is now inaccurate. In the post-war era, protectionism has not actually moved counter-cyclically. Tariffs and non-tariff barriers simply do not rise systematically during cyclic downturns. I document this new stylized fact with a panel of data covering over 60 countries and 30 years, using eighteen measures of protectionism and seven of business cycles. I also provide some hints as to why protectionism is no longer counter-cyclic.

JEL-codes: E32 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Date: 2012-05
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Working Paper: Protectionism Isn’t Counter-Cyclic (anymore) (2012)
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