The Mildest Recession: Output, Profits, and Stock Prices as the U.S. Emerges from the 2001 Recession

William D. Nordhaus ()

No 8938, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the state of the United States economy as it emerges from the 2001 recession. A comparison of several central economic variables indicates that the 2001 recession was the mildest recession in the postwar period. In light of highly differentiated characteristics of recessions, the paper suggests that we differentiate among downturns by a five-category 'recession severity scale,' analogous to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. According to this approach, the 2001 recession fits in the least severe box, a 'category I recession,' along with the 1963 and 1967 non-recessions. The paper next examines the behavior of profits in recent years and shows that financial finagling has infected the aggregate profits numbers. Finally, the study constructs a measure of the forward-looking return on equities and concludes that the prospective real yield on equities in early 2002 is at its low point of the last half-century.

JEL-codes: E3 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-05
Note: EFG

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8938.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

Related works:
Working Paper: The Mildest Recession: Outputs, Profits, and Stock Prices as the U.S. Emerges from the 2001 Recession (2002)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8938

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8938
The price is Paper copy available by mail.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Address: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by ().