Zone euro: croissance sous contraintes: Perspectives 2010-2011 pour l’économie européenne

Christine Rifflart, Christophe Blot, Yasser Yeddir-Tamsamani and Céline Antonin
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Christine Rifflart: OFCE
Christophe Blot: OFCE
Yasser Yeddir-Tamsamani: OFCE
Céline Antonin: OFCE

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Abstract: After experiencing two consecutive quarters of positive growth in 2009, it is now clear that the recession in the euro zone is technically over, even though GDP decreased by 4% on an annual basis, and even though some countries like Spain or Ireland are still lagging behind. Growth was fuelled by external trade and inventories dynamics, whereas domestic demand declined, following dull consumption features, investment cuts, and a soaring unemployment rate. Stabilization will require more time, and unemployment will remain high in 2010. Triggered by external trade and inventories, GDP will raise by 0,9% in 2010 and by 1,6% in 2011. Growth will indeed be crippled by a low rate of productive investment and a high level of unemployment. Besides, all industrialized countries will cut budgetary spending, whether in 2010 or in 2011 at the latest, thus slowing down the growth pace.

JEL-codes: F01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-04
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE (2010-04) v., p.-

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