Forecasting Spanish Elections

Pedro C. Magalhães (), Luís Francisco Aguiar () and Michael S. Lewis-Beck ()
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Pedro C. Magalhães: University of Lisbon, Social Sciences Institute
Luís Francisco Aguiar: Universidade do Minho - NIPE, http://www.eeg.uminho.pt
Michael S. Lewis-Beck: University of Iowa

No 17/2011, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho

Abstract: The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises considerable prediction accuracy of Spanish general election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model, and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the 2012 general election.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-for and nep-pol
Date: 2011
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