Motivated by the theory that suggests that Serbian exporters bear a burden of “strong” dinar, this paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The contribution of this paper is the estimate of the long-run impact of exchange rate on exports and imports for several industry groups. The estimated elasticity of exports with respect to real exchange rate is about 0.5, suggesting that the potential changes in the exchange rate policy would yield relatively small benefits for exporters. On the other hand, long-run relationship of imports and the exchange rate is not confirmed, while the aggregate wages, salaries, and pensions have the strongest effect on imports in the long run.
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