Why did we fail to predict GDP during the last cycle? A breakdown of forecast errors for Austria

Martin Schneider () and Christian Ragacs

Working Papers from Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank)

Abstract: This paper proposes an informal taxonomy to break down forecast errors of institutional forecasts. This breakdown is demonstrated for the forecasts of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) for Austrian GDP. The main result is that the largest part of the forecast errors can be explained by erroneous projections of the international environment. Data revisions also substantially contribute to the forecasting error for the forecast of the current year. Domestic exogenous variables play a minor role only. The inclusion of judgement improves the forecasting performance.

Keywords: Forecast error taxonomy; Breakdown; Austria; Judgement; Technical forecast. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2009-02-11
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.oenb.at/de/img/wp151_tcm14-97772.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:onb:oenbwp:151

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, c/o Beate Hofbauer-Berlakovich, POB 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria

The price is Free subject to availability.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank)
Address: P.O. Box 61, A-1011 Vienna, Austria
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Markus Knell and Helmut Stix ().