Los acuerdos comerciales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú con los Estados Unidos: efectos sobre el comercio, la producción y el bienestar

Trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States: effects on trade, production and welfare

José Elías Durán Lima (), Carlos de Miguel () and Andrés Schushny

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The Computable General Equilibrium model, based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, is used to evaluate the impact of separate bilateral free trade agreements by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru with the United States of America (USA). As the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) is to expire shortly, a number of different scenarios have been analyzed: full liberalization, liberalization excluding sensitive products and non-conclusion of agreements. Signature of the agreements would lead to a widespread increase in trade among the negotiating countries to the detriment of their Andean partners. While the effects on welfare would benefit only the United States and Peru, from the capital accumulation standpoint they are clearly positive for all countries. Research shows that, while these agreements would not be enough on their own to trigger a process of sustained development, an active economic and social policy could usefully tap their potential.

Keywords: Treaties; Free trade; Trade negotiations; Social welfare; Economic analysis; Andean region; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R13 F13 C68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-05-10, Revised 2007-04-25
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Published in CEPAL Review 978-92-1-121635-6.No. 91(2007): pp. 67-94

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:10873

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