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Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

Daniel Stavarek ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approach to the EMP estimation on these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends as well as magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP to grow. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all countries analyzed.

Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure; Model-dependent Approach; Model-independent Approach; European Union; Euro-candidate Countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E42 F31 F36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-ifn, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-tra
Date: 2008-11-10
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:12079

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