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How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?

Katrin Olafsdottir and Kari Sigurdsson

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Every month the commercial banks in Iceland publish their inflation forecast for the coming month. This paper examines how accurate these forecasts were from 2000 to 2006. Most of the forecasts have similar accuracy where the inflation rate in the month in question is underestimated by 2 to 6 points. We did not find that a forecast is more likely to be accurate in a specific month if it was accurate in the previous month.

Keywords: inflation; forecasts; root mean square error. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:18288

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