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Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah

Evan Lau and Siti Nur Zahara Hamzah

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables.

Keywords: econometric; crime; Sabah; cointegration; VECM; VDC (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 C32 A13 K42 C01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-05-26
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