Default and the Term Structure in Sovereign Bonds

Cristina Arellano and Ananth Ramanarayanan ()

No 299, 2006 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: This paper builds a dynamic model of borrowing and default to study the term structure of sovereign bonds in emerging markets. The borrower in the model can buy short and long bonds at contingent prices that reflect the timing of default events. The model generates a yield curve that is upward sloping on tranquil times as in the data. The reason is that if default events are likely in the future but not in the near term, only the long yield will be adjusted for this. However if default is a likely event in the near future the yield curve is inverted. In this case, long bonds are safer than short bonds for lenders in present value terms, because if the economy avoids the stressed period, it may repay its debt obligations in all future states. This matches the data in emerging markets bonds where in times of crises yields of shorter bonds are higher. The model also delivers that long bonds are issued primarily on tranquil times and short debt is used more heavily during crisis as in emerging markets. In the model long debt provides a good hedge against future bad shocks because the effective cost for such borrowing is lower exactly in times of high interest rates. Thus the borrower prefers in tranquil times long bonds because of the additional benefits. In addition, this effect increases borrowing incentives which in equilibrium translates into higher default probabilities. We calibrate the model to Brazil and find that the model can match various features of the data including the volatility of long and short bonds yields.

Keywords: Sovereign Debt; Default; Term Structure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-12-03
View citations in EconPapers

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed006:299

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2006 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics
Address: Society for Economic Dynamics Anne Stubing CV Starr Center for Applied Economics 269 Mercer Street, Room 303 New York University New York, NY 10003
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Christian Zimmermann ().