Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?

Nir Jaimovich () and Sergio Rebelo ()
Additional contact information
Nir Jaimovich: Economics UCSD

No 31, 2006 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: In this paper we propose a model that generates an expansion in response to good news about future total factor productivity (TFP) or investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and preferences that exhibit a weak short-run income effect on the labor supply. These preferences nest, as special cases, the two classes of utility functions most widely used in the business cycle literature. Even though our model abstracts from negative productivity shocks, it generates recessions that resemble those in the post-war U.S. economy. Recessions are caused not by contemporaneous negative shocks but by lackluster news about the future TFP or investment-specific technical change

Keywords: News; Future Shocks; Business Cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-upt
Date: 2006-12-03
View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.econ.ucsd.edu/~njaimovi/papers/news-drive-business-cycle6.pdf main text (application/pdf)
http://repec.org/sed2006/up.23434.1133567703.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle? (2006)
Working Paper: Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle? (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed006:31

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2006 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics
Address: Society for Economic Dynamics Anne Stubing CV Starr Center for Applied Economics 269 Mercer Street, Room 303 New York University New York, NY 10003
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Christian Zimmermann ().