Market versus Analysts Reaction: the Effect of Aggregate and Firm Specific News

Michele Bagella, Leonardo Becchetti and Rocco Ciciretti ()

Departmental Working Papers from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: The paper investigates the stability of stock markets by exploring how specific and aggregate shocks generate reassessment of investors and analysts expectations on earnings forecasts and on the fundamental value of equities. In this paper we evaluate the effects of this combined reaction on the implied equity risk premium extracted from a standard two-stage dividend discount (DD) model. Our findings show: i) substantial overreaction of investors to both downward and upward firm specific forecast revisions, plus overreaction to changes in GDP and to the announcements of the Consumer and Business Confidence indicator before the burst of the March 2000 stock market bubble; ii) a fall in the positive overreaction to upward earning forecast revisions and GDP changes after the stock bubble burst and a loss of significance of overreaction to upward forecast revisions and to announcements of the Consumer Confidence Index after the 9/11 terrorist attack. These findings appear broadly consistent with the hypothesis of reduced participation of uninformed (noise) traders to financial markets. We also observe that the interplay of monetary policy stance, analysts’ forecasts and investors confidence expressed by equity risk premia around extreme shocks is such that it reduces financial market instability potentially generated by them.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Date: 2005-01
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rtv:ceiswp:211

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