The leverage effect in financial markets: retarded volatility and market panic

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Andrew Matacz and Marc Potters
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Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management
Andrew Matacz: Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management
Marc Potters: Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management

No 101120, Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive from Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management

Abstract: We investigate quantitatively the so-called leverage effect, which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks, this correlation is moderate and decays exponentially over 50 days, while for stock indices, it is much stronger but decays faster. For individual stocks, the magnitude of this correlation has a universal value that can be rationalized in terms of a new `retarded' model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific market panic phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect.

JEL-codes: G1 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-01

Published in Physical Review Letters 87(22), 228701 (2001)

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sfi:sfiwpa:0101120

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