CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: A SIMULATION STUDY

Jacqueline M. Hamilton, David Maddison and Richard S.J. Tol ()

No FNU-31, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is smaller than for population and income changes.

Keywords: Tourism demand; climate change; global model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-09, Revised 2003-09
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Published, Global Environmental Change, 15 (3), 253-266

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgc:wpaper:31

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