ECONOMY-WIDE ESTIMATES OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HUMAN HEALTH

Francesco Bosello, Roberto Roson and Richard S.J. Tol ()

No FNU-57, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth.The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern

Keywords: Impacts of climate change; human health; computable general equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-12, Revised 2004-12
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Published, Ecological Economics, 58, 579-591

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http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publica ... pers/cgehealthwp.pdf First version, 2004 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health (2005)
Journal Article: Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health (2006)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgc:wpaper:57

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