CHIMP: A SIMPLE POPULATION MODEL FOR USE IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Brian Fisher, Guy Jakeman, Hom Pant, Malte Schwoon () and Richard S.J. Tol ()

No FNU-69, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Distinguishing features of this model, compared to other model for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the public domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline than assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between population growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.

Keywords: population model; long term projections; global change; integrated assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-for
Date: 2005-07, Revised 2005-07
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Published, Integrated Assessment Journal, 6 (3), 1-33

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sgc:wpaper:69

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