The Special Status of Mathematical Probability: A Historical Sketch

Xavier De Scheemaekere () and Ariane Szafarz

No 08-017.RS, Working Papers CEB from Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Business School, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB)

Abstract: The history of the mathematical probability includes two phases: 1) From Pascal and Fermat to Laplace, the theory gained in application fields; 2) In the first half of the 20th Century, two competing axiomatic systems were respectively proposed by von Mises in 1919 and Kolmogorov in 1933. This paper places this historical sketch in the context of the philosophical complexity of the probability concept and explains the resounding success of Kolmogorov’s theory through its ability to avoid direct interpretation. Indeed, unlike experimental sciences, and despite its numerous applications, probability theory cannot be tested per se. Rather it relates to practical matters by means of transition hypotheses or bridging principles that match the structure of practical problems with abstract theory. In this respect probability theory has a very special status among scientific disciplines.

Keywords: probability; Kolmogorov; von Mises; axioms; epistemology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B41 B16 B23 C00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-hpe
Date: Written 2008-05
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http://www.solvay.edu/EN/Research/Bernheim/documents/wp08017.pdf First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

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