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Forecasting Turkish GDP Growth with Financial Variables and Confidence Indicators

Mahmut Gunay

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This note evaluates the forecast performance of the financial variables and confidence indicators for four quarter ahead cumulative growth of Turkish GDP. Our results point out that some indicators can help reduce forecast errors relative to a benchmark, but forecast performance of the variables may change over time. Combining forecasts with equal weight or based on the recent performance does not lead to a significant difference in forecast performance. [TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisi icin finansal degiskenler ile guven endekslerinin dort ceyrek birikimli GSYIH buyumesi tahmin performanslari degerlendirilmistir. Sonuclar, incelenen degiskenlerin bazilarinin baz bir modele gore tahmin hatalarini dusurdugunu ancak tahmin performansinin zaman icinde degisebildiðini gostermektedir. Tahmin birlestirmesi icin tahminlerin esit agirliklandirilmasi ile son donem performanslarina gore agirliklandirilmasi arasinda onemli bir fark gorulmemistir.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-for
Date: 2016
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