Inflation Expectations and Regime Shifts

Matti Viren ()
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Matti Viren: Department of Economics, University of Turku

No 5, Discussion Papers from Aboa Centre for Economics

Abstract: This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are examined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the analysis is an assumption that inflation expectations do not mechanically reflect past inflation as may econometric specification de facto assume but rather they depend on the relevant economic regime. Also the adjustment of expectations to past inflation is different in different inflation regimes. The regime analysis is based on panel data from EMU/EU countries for the period 1973–2004, while the inflation adjustment analysis mainly uses the Kalman filter technique for individual countries for the same period. Expectations (forecasts) are derived from OECD data. Empirical results strongly favour the regime-sensitivity hypothesis and provide an explanation for the poor performance of conventional estimation procedures in the context of Phillips curves

Keywords: inflation expectations; Kalman filter; stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: Written 2006-04
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