Dynamic Conditional Correlations for Asymmetric Processes

Manabu Asai and Michael McAleer

No CIRJE-F-657, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: The paper develops two Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, namely the Wishart DCC (WDCC) model and the Matrix-Exponential Conditional Correlation (MECC) model. The paper applies the WDCC approach to the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and GJR models to propose asymmetric DCC models. We use the standardized multivariate t-distribution to accommodate heavy-tailed errors. The paper presents an empirical example using the trivariate data of the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and Straits Times Indices for estimating and forecasting the WDCC-EGARCH and WDCC-GJR models, and compares the performance with the asymmetric BEKK model. The empirical results show that AIC and BIC favour the WDCC-EGARCH model to the WDCC-GJR and asymmetric BEKK models. Moreover, the empirical results indicate that the WDCC-EGARCH-t model produces reasonable VaR threshold forecasts, which are very close to the nominal 1% to 3% values.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
Date: 2009-08

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf657

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