A complex systems methodology to transition management

Malte Schwoon (), Floortje Alkemade (), Koen Frenken () and Marko Hekkert ()

No 08-12, Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series from Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies

Abstract: There is a general sense of urgency that major technological transitions are required for sustainable development. Such transitions are best perceived as involving multiple transition steps along a transition path. Due to the path dependent and irreversible nature of innovation in complex technologies, an initial transition step along some preferred path may cut off paths that later may turn out to be more desirable. For these reasons, initial transition steps should allow for future flexibility, where we define flexibility as robustness regarding changing evidence and changing preferences. We propose a technology assessment methodology that identifies the flexibility of initial transition steps in complex technologies. We illustrate our methodology by an empirical application to 2646 possible future car systems.

Keywords: NK-model; complexity; flexibility; irreversibility; path dependence; transition path; transition management; sustainable development; car technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 D83 O32 Q01 Q42 Q55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec
Date: 2008-04, Revised 2008-04

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Related works:
Journal Article: A complex systems methodology to transition management (2009)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uis:wpaper:0812

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