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Macroeconomic Regimes

Lieven Baele () and Et Al.
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Lieven Baele: Finance Department, CentER, and Netspar, Tilburg University

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Antonio Moreno (), Koen Inghelbrecht and Geert Bekaert ()

No 03/12, Faculty Working Papers from School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra

Abstract: We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. Output and inflation shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 and 1990, respectively. However, we also identify multiple shifts between accommodating and active monetary policy regimes, which play an as important role as shock volatility in driving the volatility of the macro variables. We provide new estimates of the onset and demise of the Great Moderation and quantify the relative role played by macro-shocks and monetary policy. The estimated rational expectations model exhibits indeterminacy in the mean square stability sense, mainly because monetary policy is excessively passive.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Regime-Switching; Survey Expectations; New-Keynesian Models; Great Moderation; Macr (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E52 E58 C42 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2012-07-31
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http://www.unav.edu/documents/10174/6546776/1343732109_WP_UNAV_03_12.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Macroeconomic regimes (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Macroeconomic regimes (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Regimes (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Regimes (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: Macroeconomic Regimes (2011) Downloads
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