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Can Indonesia’s Fiscal Policy be Sustained, with Exploding Debt?

Tari Lestari ()
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Tari Lestari: Directorate of State Finance and Monetary Analysis (BAPPENAS)

No 201415, Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) from Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University

Abstract: The debate over debt issues always becomes hot potatoes to be discussed. Recent data in debt position which accounted for 1.977,71 trillion IDR onDecember31st2012 has made a thousand eyes looking at The Central Government and questioning whether Indonesia should continue to rely on debt for development financing, and whether its debt level is dangerous for fiscal sustainability or not. This paper analyzes debt sustainability by using Natural Debt Limit (NDL) approach introduced by Mendoza-Oveido. In order to examine how the Indonesian government reacts to changes in its debt position, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using an econometric approach, namely Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows that: (i) natural debt limit for Indonesia is 32,3% over GDP; (ii) since 1992 the central government has run a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response towards rising debt. Indonesia has a space to utilize more debt, but in a good manner (well-managed) especially aimed for productive and priority spending such as for infrastructure and education.

Keywords: Crisis; Fiscal sustainability; Natural Debt Limit; Public Debt; Fiscal Reaction Function; Deficits (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H62 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pbe, nep-pub and nep-sea
Date: 2014-11, Revised 2014-11
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http://ceds.feb.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201415.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

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