The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

Matteo Cervellati () and Uwe Sunde ()

University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 from Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen

Abstract: We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and crosscountry panel data.

Keywords: Economic and Demographic Transition; Adult Longevity; Child Mortality; Heterogeneous Human Capital; Comparative Development; Development Traps; Kernel Distributions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 J10 J13 N30 O10 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dev and nep-hea
Date: Written
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