A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone

Monica Billio (), Jacques Anas, Laurent Ferrara () and Marco Lo Duca
Additional contact information
Jacques Anas: Coe Rexecode, Paris
Marco Lo Duca: European Central Bank

No 2007_33, Working Papers from University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics

Abstract: We propose a dating process for the business and growth Euro-zone cycles. This process is a result of a non parametric algorithm and diverse criteria assessment (duration, deepness, diffusion, synchronisation), as well as of “expert judgments” based on a combination of the following principles: a comparison of direct and indirect dating; an objective of coherence between growth cycle and business cycle turning points (ABCD approach); an objective of coherence between industrial and GDP cycles. As a complement to the traditional direct approach based on the study of Euro-zone aggregates, the main contribution of this paper is to measure the degree of diffusion and synchronisation of the cycles among the countries.

Keywords: Economic cycles; Turning point; Chronology; Non parametric approach; Euro-zone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C50 C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: Written 2007
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