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A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs

Karl Schlag (), James Tremewan and Joel van der Weele ()
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Joel van der Weele: http://www.univie.ac.at/Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Vienna Economics Papers from University of Vienna, Department of Economics

Abstract: Incentivized methods for eliciting subjective probabilities in economic experiments present the subject with risky choices or bets that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons, and propose some extensions to the standard framework. In addition, we survey the empirical literature on the performance of these elicitation methods in actual experiments, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order efects, hedging, and diferent ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects. We end with some thoughts on the merits of using incentives for belief elicitation and some guidelines for implementation.

JEL-codes: C83 C91 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe and nep-exp
Date: 2014-01
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http://homepage.univie.ac.at/Papers.Econ/RePEc/vie/viennp/vie1401.pdf (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs (2015) Downloads
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