Business Confidence and Cyclical Turning Points: A Markov-Switching Approach

Mark J. Holmes () and Brian Silverstone ()

Working Papers in Economics from University of Waikato, Department of Economics

Abstract: Markov regime-switching analysis is used to consider the relationship between business confidence and the probability of turning points in cyclical GDP. We find, in an application to New Zealand, that confidence is related to both the deepness and duration of the business cycle and is asymmetric regarding the probability of the economy remaining in a given regime. Overall, the New Zealand business confidence series is a useful indicator of cyclical turning points.

Keywords: business confidence; business cycle; Markov-switching; New Zealand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2007-09-01
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wai:econwp:07/19

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