A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa

S. Niggol Seo, Robert Owen Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar (), Rashid Hassan and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya

No 4599, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications"with"and"without"country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.

Keywords: Climate Change; Global Environment Facility; Common Property Resource Development; Rural Poverty Reduction; Transport and Environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-env
Date: 2008-04-01
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Journal Article: A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa (2009)
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