Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola

François J. Bourguignon, Francisco H. G. Ferreira () and Phillippe G. Leite

No 516, William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series from William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School

Abstract: Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on micro-econometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

Keywords: Conditional Transfers; Demand for Schooling; Child Labor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I38 J13 J22 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-09-01
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Working Paper: Ex-ante evaluation of conditional cash transfer programs: the case of bolsa escola (2002)
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