A note on the modelling of hyper-inflations

Evens SALIES and Peter MOFFATT
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Evens SALIES: University of Perpignan & of Paris 1 - Panthéon Sorbonne
Peter MOFFATT: University of East Anglia

Econometrics from EconWPA

Abstract: In time series macroeconometric models, the first difference in the logarithm of a variable is routinely used to represent the rate of change of that variable. It is often overlooked that the assumed approximation is accurate only if the rates of change are small. Models of hyper-inflation are a case in point, since in these models, by definition, changes in price are large. In this letter, Cagan’s model is applied to Hungarian hyper-inflation data. It is then demonstrated that use of the approximation in the formation of the price inflation variable is causing an upward bias in the model’s key parameter, and therefore an exaggeration of the effect postulated by Cagan.

Keywords: Cagan's model; Model Specification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-06-05
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 6
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