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TESTING EFFICIENCY OF THE COPPER FUTURES MARKET: NEW EVIDENCE FROM LONDON METAL EXCHANGE

Dimitris Kenourgios and Aristeidis Samitas
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Aristeidis Samitas: University of Aegean

Finance from EconWPA

Abstract: This paper investigates the joint hypothesis of market efficiency and unbiasedness of futures prices for the copper futures contract traded on the London Metal Exchange. This contract is of particular importance given the usage and properties of the underlying commodity and its highest share of trading during the last decade, in an exchange which is the centre of the world’s trading in copper. The data contain prices from two different copper futures contracts (three and fifteen months maturity) covering the decade of 1990s, a very volatile and turbulent period for the copper market worldwide. Unlike previous studies, it tests for both long-run and short-run efficiency using cointegration and error correction model. Our results show that the market is not efficient and do not provide unbiased estimates of future copper spot prices, which has important implications for the users of this market.

Keywords: Copper Futures Market; Market Efficiency; Unbiasedness Hypothesis; London Metal Exchange (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
Date: 2005-12-09
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
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