Quantified beliefs and believed quantities

Dov Samet
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Dov Samet: Faculty of Management Tel Aviv University

Game Theory and Information from EconWPA

Abstract: That people estimate quantities, or have beliefs about them, is a daily observable phenomenon. People also quantify their beliefs, at least in theory, by ascribing to them probability numbers. It is shown that quantified beliefs and estimations give rise to the same model, that of a type space, and can therefore be viewed as the two sides of the same coin. We study the axiom that an agent's estimation of his own estimation is correct, showing it to be weaker than the introspection axiom, according to which an agent is certain of his own probabilistic beliefs. It implies, however, that the agent is certain that he is introspective, and it is equivalent to the axioms of averaging and conditioning, which are expressed in terms of probabilistic beliefs.

Keywords: Harsanyi type spaces; estimation; probabilistic beliefs; ergodic theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C7 D8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gth, nep-mic and nep-tid
Date: 1998-05-10
Note: Type of Document - pdflatex, postscript; prepared on windows 95; pages: 13
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:9805003

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