Forecasting for Marketing

J. Scott Armstrong () and R. Brodie
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R. Brodie: University of Auckland

General Economics and Teaching from EconWPA

Abstract: Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.

Keywords: forecasting; marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec
Date: 2005-02-04
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 20
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502018

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