Anticipations, External Crises and Growth Cycles in Emerging Market Countries

Martin Melecky ()

International Finance from EconWPA

Abstract: This paper attempts to carry out a study of relative importance of anticipated and unanticipated external crises for the dynamics of economic growth. The estimations are carried out within a two equation system capturing the possibility of a common shock to external crises and growth. The effect of current-account reversals on growth appears to be similar across considered regions, however, one cannot draw any general conclusion about the importance of the unanticipated component of the reversals for growth. The effect of currency crises appears to vary across the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. The unanticipated component of the currency crises is significant only in CEE. The unanticipated component in the effect of the joint crisis on growth appears to be important in Latin America, and with lower precision also in CEE and Asia.

Keywords: Anticipations; External Crises; Growth Cycle; Panel Data. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F31 F32 O52 O53 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2005-02-04
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0502003

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