Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games

Victor Aguirregabiria () and Pedro Mira
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Pedro Mira: CEMFI

Industrial Organization from EconWPA

Abstract: This paper studies the estimation of dynamic discrete games of incomplete information. Two main econometric issues appear in the estimation of these models: the indeterminacy problem associated with the existence of multiple equilibria, and the computational burden in the solution of the game. We propose a class of pseudo maximum likelihood (PML) estimators that deals with these problems and we study the asymptotic and finite sample properties of several estimators in this class. We first focus on two-step PML estimators which, though attractive for their computational simplicity, have some important limitations: they are seriously biased in small samples; they require consistent nonparametric estimators of players' choice probabilities in the first step, which are not always feasible for some models and data; and they are asymptotically inefficient. Second, we show that a recursive extension of the two-step PML, which we call nested pseudo likelihood (NPL), addresses those drawbacks at a relatively small additional computational cost. The NPL estimator is particularly useful in applications where consistent nonparametric estimates of choice probabilities are either not available or very imprecise, e.g., models with permanent unobserved heterogeneity. Finally, we illustrate these methods in Montecarlo experiments and in an empirical application to a model of firm entry and exit in oligopoly markets using Chilean data from several retail industries.

Keywords: Dynamic discrete games; Multiple equilibria; Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation; Entry and exit in oligopoly markets. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C35 C63 C73 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm
Date: Written
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 38
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http://129.3.20.41/eps/io/papers/0406/0406006.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC DISCRETE GAMES (2004)
Journal Article: Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games (2007)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0406006

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