Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data

Lauri Kajanoja
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Lauri Kajanoja: Bank of Finland

Macroeconomics from EconWPA

Abstract: This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market data on a real-time basis. The framework uses information from both stock and bond markets. It builds on a dividend discount model of stock valuation and on a linearized consumption Euler equation. Furthermore, expected long-run dividend growth for a broad equity index is assumed to be related to expected long-run GDP growth. Short-run and long-run dividend growth expectations are allowed to differ. The former are measured using equity index futures. We extract growth and inflation expectations for the euro area and for the United States.

Keywords: inflation expectations; growth expectations; equity index futures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E44 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04-26
Note: Type of Document - pdf
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404021

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