The Fed and the Stock Market

Antonello D'Agostino (), Luca Sala () and Paolo Surico ()

Macroeconomics from EconWPA

Abstract: The Fed closely monitors the stock market and the stock market continuously forms expectations about the Fed decisions. What does this imply for the relation between the fed funds rate and the S&P500? We find that the answer depends on the conditions prevailing on the financial market. During periods of high (low) volatility in asset price inflation an unexpected 5% fall in the stock market index implies that the Fed cuts the interest rate by 19 (6) basis points while an unanticipated policy tightening of 50 basis points causes a 4.7% (2.3%) decline in the S&P500. The Fed reaction to asset price return is however statistically different from zero only in the high volatility regime, whereas the fall in asset price return following an interest rate rise is highly significant during normal times only.

Keywords: asset price volatility; nonlinear policy; threshold SVAR; system GMM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2005-07-04
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 21
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Working Paper: The Fed and the Stock Market (2005)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0507001

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