Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations
Maurizio Bovi ()
Macroeconomics from EconWPA
Using data from the Business Surveys Unit of the European Commission, this paper examines how, and how accurately, people assess economic systems. As expected, respondents demonstrate to know their own situation better than the system wide one, and the past better than the future. Also, correctly, perceptions accumulate towards the long run “stationarity” of the economic stance. In contrast, the presence of a long-run bias in the “forecast” error is detected. Evidence shows that it is due to people’s tendency to judge over-pessimistically and/or to forecast over-optimistically. Finally, individuals seem to believe that their own situation may consistently drift apart from the general one. I interpret commonsense behaviors as supporting the reliability of survey data. Puzzling results are assessed in the light of cognitive economics.
Keywords: Beliefs; survey research; consumer sentiment; cognitive economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 C82 D12 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe
Note: Type of Document - pdf
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512002
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Macroeconomics from EconWPA
Series data maintained by EconWPA ().