Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions

Christopher Otrok () and Charles H. Whiteman ()

Macroeconomics from EconWPA

Abstract: This paper designs and implements a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model for a vector of data describing the Iowa economy. Posterior distributions of parameters and the latent factor are analyzed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and coincident and leading indicators are given by posterior mean values of current and predictive distributions for the latent factor.

JEL-codes: E (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996-10-22
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